It’s been over two and a half months since our last market update on April 7th. At that time, SPX had gapped down to 4800 following tariff concerns. We noted that much of the sell off was sentiment driven rather than fundamentally justified, and argued that if tariffs were paused or reversed, the macro backdrop remained strong enough for markets to recover and potentially exceed previous highs.
That view played out. Tariffs were paused for 90 days and since then SPX has rallied 25% reaching a high of 6060 and closed at 5970 on June 20th. This has been one of the strongest rallies in recent history.
Our call aligns with the 2025 Outlook shared at beginning of the year, where we anticipated a pullback in Q1 followed by strength into the summer.
Market Outlook - H2 2025
As we head into the second half of the year our view remains that:
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